Disaster Futures is an ICPEM programme which will use foresight and horizon scanning approaches to consider how the practices of civil protection and emergency management may need to evolve capabilities and responses to potential future extreme events and disasters.
Strategic foresight strives to enable non-predictive understanding of plausible future states and support improved present strategic decisions.
The systematic examination of potential problems, threats, opportunities, and likely future developments.
Used in combination foresight and horizon scanning can bring the following benefits:
Assist organisations to develop a structured approach to, and dialogue on, emerging and future issues
Help in the development of more robust present-day decision-making and assist in the creation of preferred future strategies
Help build collective preparedness to consider a range of possible alternative futures
Foster an anticipatory approach to help an organisation be adaptable to key areas of future change.
Foresight and horizon scanning approaches were first formally developed towards the end of World War II in response to the emerging Cold War security environment. Since then the methods and tools have continued to evolve and have been adopted by governments, commercial and third sector organisations.
Disaster Futures will be an evolving programme. It is designed to achieve the following high-level aims.
Support the longer term strategic direction of the Institute and help position it as a source of innovative insight and research development.
Provide members with a dedicated space in which to discuss and explore civil protection and emergency management futures-orientated themes and emerging issues and contribute to these approaches and their research outputs.
Provide members with the opportunity to engage with, and learn, some practical horizon scanning skills to help their own professional development.
Support two other ICPEM strategic development programmes - Disaster Science and Continuing Professional Development.