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Doc Hines - Covid News & Views - 16 July 2021

Boris Johnson warned us we could have 50,000 new cases per day by Monday 19th July. He was not far out. We passed the 50,000 marks today, 3 days ahead of schedule. Some of the new cases we see in the next few days may well be due to spread at the Europa Cup Final 5 days ago. We shall soon know just how much of a super spreader event this may have been.

Today 51,870 new positive cases have been detected compared with 48,553 yesterday. These are from around 1.2 million daily tests done. When looked at over 7days the figure has risen by 277,000 in 7 days, a rise of 35% in the week. The positive rate continues to climb, 344.8 positive cases per 100k of the population.

As for deaths, they fluctuate day by day but are rising slowly but relentlessly. There were 277 deaths in the last 7 days, 101 more than the previous week. The death rate is now 0.3 per 100k of the population.

Looking at hospital data, now available at last, there are 3,964 inpatients compared with 3,786 the previous day. There were almost 4,000 admissions in the last 7 days. The daily admissions show a big jump from 545 yesterday to 717 today. Now today, 551 are being treated on a ventilator.

We now have the highest number of daily cases since mid-January and the highest deaths since the end of March.

Whoever coined the term Freedom Day for Monday clearly had no understanding of the situation at all. I urge you not to use it in your thinking and planning for the months ahead. Although the letter of the law may ease requirements may well increase. There are many now saying that you cannot use a service if you do not comply.

Masks will be necessary on all NHS premises, not Mandatory but Compulsory if you want admission as a visitor, patient or staff. Waitrose, Tesco and Sainsburys and I suspect the other supermarkets will insist on masks being worn or no entry. Transport for London has said the same about travel in London. Waterstones bookstores will have the same policy. Many others will be set to join in over the next two days.

One rather concerning figure is that there has been a 21% rise in the number of alcohol-related deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Silent drinking at home will have contributed to this.

There is evidence that the Delta plus variant of Covid is considerably more transmissible than the Delta variant alone.

There is concern at present over the very large number of people being told by Track and Trace to self-isolate because of a contact being noted. It is having a significant impact on our workforce and many companies including the NHS are struggling. One way to combat this may be to allow all those pinged by track and trace to continue working if they have been double immunised and the last dose is more than 2 weeks ago. They would be allowed to work and be required to do daily Lateral Fow tests for a week. If one is positive then isolation is immediate and follow up as a new case is required. This change may make a slight increase in the number of cases but would maintain a significant part of the workforce still at work. There were 500,000 Track and Trace reports in the week ending 7th July. With the proposed new system most could still remain at work.

In France, President Macron has said that those not vaccinated will be unable to work and will not get paid. That will sort out the French anti-vaccers quickly. There are rumours that France may be added to the red list for travel purposes in the next few days.

Sydney Australia has had to extend its local lockdown for a further 2 weeks.

One in every 95 adults in England currently have Covid, The figure for Scotland is 1 in 90. Wales it is in 360 and Northern Ireland 1 in 290.

Some of you have commented that I am too positive and optimistic in my postings. I believe it is important to be positive and believe we will come through this. In the next few weeks, we will see the beginning of the end of this third wave, and I sincerely hope it does not bring too heavy a toll on us. The only thing we should all dread is a new resistant mutation. You do not want doom and gloom from me each night. There is plenty of that in your personal circumstances and in the media. My role is to stay realistic and offer you hope for a healthier future. We will all have a very busy winter, this certainly is not going away any time soon.

The top priority is to immunise as many as possible.

Schools will finish soon giving staff a much deserved period of rest and recuperation. Take or drag those still refusing to be immunised to have their jabs. Maintain all the rules and we will get there. Ignore the guidance now and much of society will be closed to you. It's better not to have the Police enforcing the unenforceable, they have better things to do fighting crime. Even in combating racism, they are overstretched.

I always enjoy your comments and read every one, replying whenever it’s required. Please keep commenting.

No freedom but increased security, just stay safe everyone.

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