The Time Is Now: Building Modern Civil Defence for a Resilient Britain

The daily news cycle is filled with conflict, instability and geopolitical tension. From the war in Ukraine to escalating cyber threats and increasing pressure on critical infrastructure, the risks facing the United Kingdom are evolving rapidly.

Yet while the nature of the threat has changed, one fundamental question remains:

Are we ready?

This question sat at the heart of the CBR Cohort 2026 event, co-hosted by ICPEM and the University of Bath. Sponsored by the National Voluntary Civil Aid Services (NCVAS) and administered by the NCP Centre, with support from the Ministry of Defence, FANY, RAYNET and many committed volunteers, the event brought together professionals from across sectors to explore the realities of resilience in an increasingly uncertain world.

More importantly, it challenged us to think beyond emergency response and consider what true national preparedness looks like in the twenty-first century.

A Lesson from Britain's Past

For much of the twentieth century, civil defence was a visible and familiar part of British life. People understood the role they played in national resilience. Air raid precautions, local wardens, public preparedness campaigns and community shelters were not unusual—they were expected. Communities knew how to respond when disruption occurred because preparedness was embedded in everyday life.

One story from the Blitz captures this spirit perfectly. A London baker continued operating throughout bombing raids. Beneath his shop, local residents gathered in a shelter, sharing bread, tea and reassurance while bombs fell overhead. His oven did more than provide food—it maintained morale and strengthened community cohesion during one of Britain's darkest periods.

Civil defence was never simply about protecting infrastructure. It was about protecting people through preparedness, organisation and community action.

From Preparedness to Response

Following the Cold War, civil defence evolved into civil protection and modern emergency management. This transformation delivered significant benefits. Today's emergency services are highly professional, supported by sophisticated risk assessments, resilient command structures and increasingly advanced technologies. These capabilities save lives every year.But there is a challenge we must confront honestly.

In becoming highly effective at managing incidents, we may have become less prepared for enduring crises.

We have largely shifted from a culture of preparedness to a culture of response. Response works exceptionally well when emergencies are localised and systems remain intact. But what happens when disruption spreads across multiple sectors simultaneously?

What happens when:

• Power networks fail.

• Telecommunications are disrupted.

• Fuel distribution is interrupted.

• Water systems stop functioning.

• Essential supply chains slow or break down.

• Cyber-attacks affect critical infrastructure.

These are not isolated incidents. They are cascading crises. And they expose the vulnerability of highly interconnected systems.

Recent Events Show the Risk Is Real

This is not a hypothetical discussion.

Recent years have demonstrated how quickly disruption can spread across society.

• The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains and highlighted the challenges of sustaining critical services during prolonged disruption.

• Fuel shortages in 2021 showed how rapidly public confidence can be affected when supply chains come under pressure.

• Major cyber incidents continue to demonstrate the dependence of modern society on digital infrastructure.

• Extreme weather events have repeatedly tested local resilience, communications and recovery arrangements.

Each event delivered the same lesson: Resilience matters before a crisis, not during one.

When Systems Fail, Communities Matter Most

History consistently shows that when formal systems are stretched, communities become an essential source of resilience.

Neighbourhood wardens once mobilised entire communities during emergencies. In one rural example, a local warden equipped with little more than a bicycle and a megaphone coordinated relief efforts during a severe storm when conventional communications failed.

The tools may have changed, but the principle remains the same.

When systems fail, people are often the first responders.Neighbours help neighbours. Voluntary organisations mobilise. Communities adapt.

This is why resilience cannot be left solely to government or emergency services.

It must be built across society.

Three Priorities for a More Resilient Britain

The encouraging news is that we do not need to invent resilience from scratch. We already know many of the measures that work.

1. Reinvest in Public Readiness

Prepared citizens strengthen emergency response. When individuals understand risks, maintain basic emergency supplies and know how to respond during disruption, they reduce pressure on frontline services and create valuable time for responders.Prepared communities are not a burden on the system. They are a force multiplier. Resilience is a dynamic state. Enhancing communities' ability to better withstand extreme events is a lengthy process and involves dealing with fundamental vulnerabilities.

2. Build Resilience into Critical Systems

For many years, efficiency has been the dominant measure of success. But resilience requires something more. It requires redundancy. Strategic stockpiles, resilient communications, community resilience hubs, decentralised energy systems and alternative supply routes may appear inefficient during normal operations. During a crisis, however, they become invaluable.Redundancy is not waste. It is insurance. More than that, it is an opportunity to improve quality of life by minimising harm not only in extreme events but by providing greater safety in routine times.

3. Plan for Continuity, Not Just Response

We must move beyond planning solely for immediate incident response. Future exercises should increasingly focus on long-duration disruptions, including:

• Widespread power outages.

• Cyber-attacks affecting critical infrastructure.

• Supply-chain interruptions.

• Telecommunications failures.

• Multi-sector cascading emergencies.

These scenarios require more than tabletop discussions. They demand realistic testing of how communities, organisations and institutions would continue operating over days, weeks and potentially months.

Why Expertise Matters

Preparedness must always be guided by evidence. History provides many examples of well-intentioned decisions producing unintended consequences when expertise is ignored. One frequently cited example is China's "Four Pests" campaign of 1958. Scientific concerns were overlooked, leading to ecological imbalance and severe impacts on agricultural production. The lesson remains relevant today.

Preparedness without evidence is dangerous. Policy without expertise can be catastrophic.

This is why organisations such as ICPEM play such an important role. Professional standards, evidence-based practice and expert advice are essential if resilience strategies are to succeed. In the aftermath of major crises, we often hear familiar explanations:

"Nobody could have predicted this"   and   "It was unprecedented."

But many risks are foreseeable. The real challenge is whether we are willing to recognise them and prepare accordingly.

The Value of the CBR Cohort and Exercise GRAPPLE

This is precisely why initiatives such as the CBR Cohort matter.The event brought together a diverse range of professionals to examine how complex crises unfold, how impacts cascade across sectors and how we can strengthen resilience at every level of society.

A key part of this discussion was the GRAPPLE exercise, originally tested during the 1980s and revisited to understand how a similar scenario might unfold today.

The exercise encouraged participants to examine:

• Threats at national, regional, local and community levels.

• The interdependencies between critical systems.

• Existing capabilities and arrangements.

• Gaps in preparedness.

• Challenges to response and recovery.

• Opportunities for collaboration.

For example, the loss of electricity does not simply mean darkness. It can lead to failures in water supply, fuel distribution, communications, healthcare delivery and countless other services that modern society depends upon. Understanding these relationships is fundamental to building effective resilience.

As the oldest learned society with roots in civil defence, ICPEM continues to promote expertise, standards and professionalism across civil protection and emergency management. Events such as this demonstrate the value of bringing together practitioners, academics, policymakers and volunteers to share knowledge and challenge assumptions.

Key Takeaways

• Joint training and realistic exercising improve preparedness, response and recovery capabilities.

• Geopolitical instability and evolving forms of conflict are increasing resilience challenges facing the UK.

• Modern threats increasingly target interconnected systems rather than individual assets.

• Disruption disproportionately affects vulnerable communities and those with limited access to support.

• The UK has already experienced significant supply-chain, fuel and service disruptions that offer valuable lessons.

• Understanding system interdependencies is vital for effective planning.

• Whole-of-society resilience requires cooperation between government, industry, academia, emergency services, voluntary organisations and communities.

• Building resilience today is significantly less costly than dealing with the consequences of failure tomorrow.

The Question We Must Answer

This discussion is not about nostalgia. It is not about rebuilding Cold War bunkers or recreating the world of Dad's Army. It is about recognising a timeless truth: Civil defence is a shared responsibility.

Government leadership is essential. Professional expertise is essential. Investment is essential. But resilience also depends on informed citizens, capable communities and strong partnerships.We must move from passive reliance to active preparedness.From reacting to crises to preparing for them. Because the next major disruption will not ask whether we were busy, constrained or well intentioned. It will ask only one question: Were we ready?

The conversations, challenges and insights explored during the CBR Cohort 2026 event represent an important step towards ensuring that the answer is yes.

Further analysis on the event will be published in the coming months, with future events being planned.